Lied About the Age Gap

    I've decided to stall work on the Age Gap essay for now and work on a different project. I have begun what I hope will be the longest and most in-depth of my essays, a paper on the presidential election of 2012. A series of papers on electoral politics could never be complete without a discussion of the next presidential election... even if it is three years away. I know it's fairly premature to begin working on an essay about something that will happen in three years, but it's important to remember that national elections begin earlier and earlier each cycle. The first Democrat to declare their candidacy for the 2008 election came in April of 2006, two and a half years before Election Day. Right now, even as Obama settles into the White House, potential 2012 Republican opponents are setting up for a run. They're stumping for other candidates, raising money, forming PACs, gathering campaign staff, making an unusually large number of trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, and becoming more and more vocal about national issues that seemingly don't have too much to do with them at the moment. So while it might seem early to be focusing on the next presidential election, it seems America is becoming more and more settled into the idea of the perpetual campaign.

     My 2012 essay will focus on what Republican challengers, in my opinion, will have a realistic chance at defeating President Obama in the general election. Since the nature of the essay is quite speculative, I have decided to write this one paper in a less formal tone. It seems unbefitting to write such as a hypothetical essay in a overly certain voice. I've tackled the essay with a lot of enthusiasm, I've written over twenty pages since I began it last weekend and I'm still not done, though I imagine that it will be edited down before I hand it in for presentation. I'm moving through this paper so quickly that I might expect to have a finished rough draft by the end of next week. Then, hopefully, I will move into discussing the Age Gap. 

Comments

[laszlo lowenstein]

When you write your paper about the Republicans you might want to mention the "Big tent" gap. With the party of "no" focusing more and more on its white conservative Southern base and little else on the margins, the Mormon from Mass is looking like the only guy who can appeal to Independent voters - a growing constituency. But, if Obama can get jobs going and show some progress on the 2 wars by 2011, Romney is toast. That leaves a bunch of yahoos and freaks to battle it out with little hope of getting more than 35%.

[Luke]

I think there are at least three strong (strong being a relative word here, because, as you said, the GOP's 2012 field is pretty flimsy) candidates the Republican Party can hope to nominate. Yes, Romney is one of them, but I'm not entirely sure he'll get the nomination. If Romney was ever meant to be the GOP's nominee, I think 2008 was his year. But his RomneyCare from his days as MA gov, coupled with his notorious flip-flops on social issues, should make him sufficiently unattractive to the party faithful. His Mormonism is perhaps the least of his problems. But if the economy is still weak and he is able to campaign on his fiscal conservatism and business acumen alone, he might have a shot. But he's also definitely not the only candidate who has the appeal to make the general election competitive, the Republicans have other hopes.