Luke Hopping - Senior Project

2012 Ongoing

Still working on the 2012 essay and I'm making a lot of progress. A list of potential Republican candidates I've reviewed already: Newt Gingrich, John Thune, Eric Cantor, Ron Paul, Jeb Bush, Gary Johnson, Donald Carcieri, Haley Barbour, and I'm almost done with Tim Pawlenty. If the majority of these names seem obscure, it's because they are. These are, mostly, dark horse candidates who may or may not run. I analyzed the odds that these candidates might run, win the nomination, and then win the general election. Discussion of the three "front runners," Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee will follow shortly. I don't want to disclose too much about the essay until it's done, I haven't quite concluded who I think the best Republican nominee would be myself. I'm hoping I can get this paper done by the end of next weekend, it's taking longer than I thought. The sections on the front runners will certainly take a while too. 

Lied About the Age Gap

    I've decided to stall work on the Age Gap essay for now and work on a different project. I have begun what I hope will be the longest and most in-depth of my essays, a paper on the presidential election of 2012. A series of papers on electoral politics could never be complete without a discussion of the next presidential election... even if it is three years away. I know it's fairly premature to begin working on an essay about something that will happen in three years, but it's important to remember that national elections begin earlier and earlier each cycle. The first Democrat to declare their candidacy for the 2008 election came in April of 2006, two and a half years before Election Day. Right now, even as Obama settles into the White House, potential 2012 Republican opponents are setting up for a run. They're stumping for other candidates, raising money, forming PACs, gathering campaign staff, making an unusually large number of trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, and becoming more and more vocal about national issues that seemingly don't have too much to do with them at the moment. So while it might seem early to be focusing on the next presidential election, it seems America is becoming more and more settled into the idea of the perpetual campaign.

     My 2012 essay will focus on what Republican challengers, in my opinion, will have a realistic chance at defeating President Obama in the general election. Since the nature of the essay is quite speculative, I have decided to write this one paper in a less formal tone. It seems unbefitting to write such as a hypothetical essay in a overly certain voice. I've tackled the essay with a lot of enthusiasm, I've written over twenty pages since I began it last weekend and I'm still not done, though I imagine that it will be edited down before I hand it in for presentation. I'm moving through this paper so quickly that I might expect to have a finished rough draft by the end of next week. Then, hopefully, I will move into discussing the Age Gap. 

Gender Gap Completed, Age Gap Next

    Earlier this week I completed my first senior project essay. It is an in-depth study on the gender gap - the voting divide between women and men. For the past thirty years, men have trended toward the Republican Party while women have moved toward the Democratic Party. I explain more on the history of the gender gap in last week's post. The first draft was over 11 pages altogether and I expect it to grow to at least 12 as a I edit and remember things I may have left out. I'm extremely excited to see my first paper complete, it is immensely rewarding. 

    Most of this week was spent struggling to get at least one person to answer an email to be my outside consultant. The list of people I hoped to maybe call my outside consultant included local politicians, journalists, bloggers, pollsters, and political strategists. Not a single reply as of yet, but I have some emails out there waiting to be replied to. I also worked on my rubric extensively, trying to figure out what I should be held accountable to complete. Initially I had hoped to complete six papers or more, that now seems pretty unrealistic. My current rubric shoots for between three and five papers by the time this is over. I had imagined at first my collection would be a series of shorter papers, now I plan on doing a few full-length ones instead. With all of this going on, I've barely had time to think about my next paper. Right now, it seems as if I'll be writing one on the Age Gap next, but it's also possible that I will write one on the presidential election of 2012. I have outlines almost ready for both. I hope to begin my next paper this weekend. 

Gender Gap

Since last week, I have settled on writing two distinct essays on the gender gap and the age gap. I elected (the politics talk is wearing off on me) to write the gender gap essay first since it developed before the age gap. I have about six pages so far and I'm going to start wrapping it up soon. I estimate I'll be done with the paper by early next week. It feels like a real accomplishment to have (almost) finished my first essay. The paper opens with an anecdote about the passing of the 19th amendment (which gave women the right to vote). It then zooms forward to the development of the gender gap in the 1980s and early 90s. Then it briefly settles on Bill Clinton's 1996 reelection bid, in which he won the female vote while losing the male vote. From there it goes on to discuss the gender gap in recent elections and how it effects us today. I'm excited to see it complete next week.